The Grammys are handed out by the Recording Academy, an organization made up of music industry professionals from across the industry. Their nominees for Album of the Year — along with Record of the Year, Song of the Year, Best New Artist, and several genre awards — used to be decided by secretive nomination review committees, but the academy eliminated almost all of those in 2021, leaving the decisions to voting members at large without an anonymous, unaccountable intermediary to veto certain choices. Scroll down for our latest racetrack odds, which are based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users. Those odds are constantly changing, so we’ll be updating this list throughout the season.
The nominations under the committee system were often controversial. At the 2021 awards, for instance, The Weeknd didn’t get a single nomination despite a critically acclaimed, chart-topping album (“After Hours”) and a song (“Blinding Lights”) so popular that Billboard ranked it as their number-one single of 2021 (and the number-three single of 2022). The Weeknd accused the academy of corruption, echoing the frustrations of other artists like Halsey and Drake, and he ultimately announced that he would boycott the awards altogether. There have also been allegations of questionable voting practices.
In 2022, the first year without the committee, the Grammys expanded the top general field categories to 10 nominations each, which came not long after those categories had been expanded from five nominees to eight in 2019. The artists nominated for Album of the Year were mostly pop stars (Taylor Swift, Olivia Rodrigo, Billie Eilish, Justin Bieber, Doja Cat, Lil Nas X, and Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga). But the winner ended up being the R&B album “We Are” by Jon Batiste, which was a surprise against albums with much greater commercial success. That indicated that even without the committees to uplift lower-profile recordings, voters won’t necessarily default to the most popular hit in the lineup.
Who do you think will get the academy’s seal of approval this year?
UPDATED: February 3, 2023
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1. ‘Renaissance’ by Beyonce
Image Credit: Courtesy of Andrew White/Parkwood Entertainment Current Odds: 10/1
Label: Parkwood/Columbia
Released: July 29, 2022
Grammy History: She has won 28 Grammys, making her the most awarded woman in history. She previously received Album of the Year bids for “I Am… Sasha Fierce,” “Beyonce,” and “Lemonade,” plus an additional nom as a featured artist on Lady Gaga’s “The Fame Monster,” but she has yet to win.
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2. ’30’ by Adele
Image Credit: Courtesy of Simon Emmett Current Odds: 11/1
Label: Columbia
Released: November 19, 2021
Grammy History: She has won 15 Grammys over the course of her career, including all of her last 13 nominations. She previously won Album of the Year for “21” and “25.”
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3. ‘Harry’s House’ by Harry Styles
Image Credit: HS/MEGA Current Odds: 13/1
Label: Columbia/Erskine
Released: May 20, 2022
Grammy History: He won his first Grammy in 2021 for Best Pop Solo Performance (“Watermelon Sugar”). This is his first nomination for Album of the Year.
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4. ‘In These Silent Days’ by Brandi Carlile
Image Credit: Neil Krug Current Odds: 13/1
Label: Low Country Sound/Elektra
Released: October 1, 2021
Grammy History: She has won six Grammys and was a previous Album of the Year nominee for “By the Way, I Forgive You.” The lead single from “In These Silent Days,” “Right on Time,” earned nominations for Record and Song of the Year in 2022.
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5. ‘ Mr. Morale and the Big Steppers’ by Kendrick Lamar
Image Credit: Katie Jones/Variety Current Odds: 14/1
Label: PGLang/Top Dawg/Aftermath/Interscope
Released: May 13, 2022
Grammy History: The hip-hop star has won 14 Grammys, but has never won Album of the Year despite five previous nominations in the category. He has been nominated for his own albums “Good Kid, M.A.A.D City,” “To Pimp a Butterfly,” and “Damn.” He was also nominated as a featured artist on Beyonce’s “Lemonade” and as the leading contributor to the “Black Panther” soundtrack.
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6. ‘Un Verano Sin Ti’ by Bad Bunny
Image Credit: Courtesy of STILLZ Current Odds: 14/1
Label: Rimas
Released: May 6, 2022
Grammy History: He has won twice at the mostly English-language Grammys, but this is his first nomination for Album of the Year.
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7. ‘Special’ by Lizzo
Image Credit: Chelsea Lauren/Variety Current Odds: 16/1
Label: Nice Life/Atlantic
Released: July 15, 2022
Grammy History: She has won three Grammys. Her breakthrough album, “Cuz I Love You,” was nominated for Album of the Year.
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8. ‘Voyage’ by ABBA
Image Credit: Courtesy of Baillie Walsh Current Odds: 16/1
Label: Polar/Universal
Released: November 5, 2021
Grammy History: Despite recording some of the most iconic songs of the 20th century, the group didn’t receive their first Grammy nomination in 2022: Record of the Year for “I Still Have Faith in You.” This is their first nomination for Album of the Year.
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9. ‘Good Morning Gorgeous’ by Mary J. Blige
Image Credit: Paul Zimmerman/Variety Current Odds: 20/1
Label: 300/Mary Jane
Released: February 11, 2022
Grammy History: She has won nine Grammys in her career. She previously earned an Album of the Year nomination as a featured artist on Kendrick Lamar’s “Good Kid, MAAD City,” but this is her first nomination in this category as a lead artist.
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10. ‘Music of the Spheres’ by Coldplay
Image Credit: Christopher Polk/Variety Current Odds: 22/1
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Released: October 15, 2021
Grammy History: The band has won seven Grammys. They also earned two previous nominations for Album of the Year for “Viva La Vida or Death and All His Friends” and “Everyday Life,” but they have yet to win the category.
