Filling out a March Madness bracket this year? This cheat sheet can help.

Baylor players and coaches celebrate with the trophy after the championship game against Gonzaga. (Darron Cummings/AP)

It’s that time of year again, when office productivity goes down and office pool participation goes up. The NCAA tournament is here! Picking a winner this year is especially difficult as there is an abundance of flawed good teams, but no truly great team that has separated itself from the pack.

There is generally no correlation between how much college basketball you watch and how much time you spend on your bracket and how you perform.

But, if you’re looking for a cheat sheet to help inform your educated guesses, here are the key figures and stats you should keep in mind when filling out your bracket and figuring out who the Final Four teams will be in New Orleans.

Ones are done

If there is one universal March Madness truth it is this: 16’s don’t beat 1’s.

No. 1 seeds are 143-1 in the first round. The absolute first thing you should do when filling out a bracket is advancing all of the number ones immediately.

No chalk

If your Final Four is chalk, it most certainly will be incorrect.

Since 1990, only two Final Fours didn’t include a one seed. But just because you have one doesn’t mean you should have four. A team ranked five or higher has reached the Final Four in nine of the last 10 tournaments. That includes multiple teams in 2011 and 2014.

On the flip side, one seeds have met in title game just eight times since seeding began in 1979, although it most recently happened last year.

Gonzaga has a difficult road

The Zags are the No. 1 overall seed and boast a top-15 rating in both defensive and offensive efficiency. They seem like a sure bet to be the last team standing.

The tournament is as much about match ups on your pathway to a championship than it is anything else, though. This is why Gonzaga, the favourite in most brackets, might not be such a sure bet. Two of their three losses this year came against Duke and Alabama. Both teams are in the West region alongside Gonzaga. This is Gonzaga’s fifth time as one seed since 2013 and no program has won more NCAA tournament games in the last 10 years. But they’ve never won six straight culminating in a national championship and the path to do it this year is far from easy.

Bet Big 12

Thought of as primarily a football conference, the Big 12 has been a beast come tournament time in basketball. The Big 12 has had one team in the Final Four in four of the last five tournaments and produced the champion in Baylor last year. This year Kansas, Baylor and Texas Tech all have a great shot at cutting down the nets.

Big 10 comes up small

Wisconsin and Iowa are trendy picks, but you might want to proceed with caution. The Big 10 hasn't had a national champion since Michigan State won in 2000. Last year it had eight teams in the tournament, and only one made it to the second weekend and that was Michigan, who made it to the Elite 8.

We The South

If there was one region to focus on it would be the South. Eight of the last 12 National Champions and five of the last six have come from the South region. Five players in the tournament average over 20 points a game and all five of them are in the South side of the bracket. If you’re leaning towards betting, or are watching only one region, it would be the South.

East Coast Bias

Geography does matter. The last team west of Texas to win a national title was Arizona in 1997.

Upset Tennessee

Tennessee is in the South and is a trendy pick, as they won the SEC tournament and probably deserve a higher seeding than the No. 3 the committee gave them. However, the Volunteers have broken hearts and brackets recently. Tennessee has been upset in the last four NCAA tournaments.

Conference championships don’t equal National championships

You want a team playing well coming into the tournament but winning your conference championship is highly overrated. Six of the last seven tournaments have been won by at large teams.

No D in Duke

All five national titles for Duke came as a top-two seed or better and many have Duke winning it all again this year. This is Coach K’s farewell but don’t get sentimental. In Duke’s last four games their defensive efficiency is 224th. Yes, they have five lottery picks on their team, but they have zero team defence.

Nova cashes in at the line

So many close games at this level come down to the free throw line. Villanova shoots 82 per cent from the free throw line as a team. If you’re struggling over who might advance, know that Nova isn’t leaving points on the line.

11 Heaven

If you’re going to pick a double-digit upset, focus on the 11 seeds. Eleven seeds are 23-21 vs. 6 seeds since 2010 -- and they might be worth riding longer than the first round. At least one 11 seed has reached the Sweet 16 in nine of the last 11 tournaments.

Don’t get too carried away with 11 seeds, however. 1989 is the only NCAA tournament in which all four 11 seeds won in the first round. Picking seeds any higher than 11 is a long shot, too. A 12 seed has never made the Elite 8.

First Four

Speaking of 11 seeds, don’t sleep on teams from the First Four. There have been two examples of a team going from the First Four to the Final Four.

Follow the underdog lines

Being an underdog based on seeding and being an underdog in Las Vegas are vastly different things. If you are looking for some early upsets, follow the money and cherry pick the higher seeds who are actually betting favourites. Lower-seeded teams that are not underdogs include 11 seed Michigan, which is a -2.5-point favourite over No. 6 Colorado State; 10 seed Loyola Chicago, a pick’em against 7-seed Ohio State; and 9-seed Memphis, which is -2.5 favourite over No. 8 Boise State.

Splash Jackrabbits

South Dakota State shot 45 per cent from three-point range. You read that correct. The entire team! Their whole squad is shooting it better from there this season than Stephen Curry. And they aren’t just chuckers. They rank 12th in offensive efficiency and first in effective field goal percentage. They are a 13 seed but, if you’re going to pick a long shot, make it one that takes long shots and is fun to watch.

Down on Davidson

We all have great memories of Davidson being giant killers in the NCAA tournament. But that likely had more to do with Stephen Curry than it did Davidson. Davidson is 0-4 in the NCAA tournament since Curry left and became pro.

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