For the better part of two months, Julio Rodriguez has been the runaway favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year. With less than two months to go, though, he has competition.
The Mariners star is still dealing as the -500 favorite at BetMGM to pad his already impressive resume, just a month removed from his first All-Star nod. He’d be the second Seattle outfielder to win it in the last three years (Kyle Lewis, 2020) and join a list that’s included Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Yordan Alvarez in the last five years alone.
This race isn’t over just yet, though, as Baltimore catcher Adley Rutschman (+400) makes a late push for this award thanks to stellar defense and a sizzling run at the plate for the upstart Orioles.
2022 AL Rookie of the Year odds
| Julio Rodriguez | -500 |
| Adley Rutschman | +400 |
| Jeremy Pena | +5000 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | +5000 |
| Steven Kwan | +6600 |
| Jose Miranda | +8000 |
| George Kirby | +15000 |
| Brock Burke | +25000 |
| Felix Bautista | +25000 |
| Riley Greene | +50000 |
| Joe Ryan | +50000 |
| Reid Detmers | +50000 |
| A.J. Puk | +50000 |
| MJ Melendez | +50000 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | +50000 |
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The case for Julio Rodriguez
It isn’t hard to see Rodriguez’s merits for this award, as there’s a legitimate chance he finishes on the MVP ballot by the season’s end.
That’s how spectacular the Mariners rookie has been through the first five months of his career. He ranks 14th among qualified AL batters in fWAR (3.5) and home runs (21), and fifth in stolen bases (23). In fact, he’s one of just two players across both leagues to post a 20-20 season and only the fourth rookie to do that in MLB history, reaching the mark in an AL-record 107 games.
Naturally, his exploits among first-year batters rank near the very top. He paces all AL rookies in home runs and slugging percentage (.468), ranks second in stolen bases, fifth in batting average (.264), and sixth in on-base percentage (.323). And there’s a strong chance his stellar rookie year will be the catalyst for the Mariners snapping the longest postseason drought (20 years) in North American professional sports. How’s that for a ROY campaign?
The case for Adley Rutschman
You have to squint a little harder to make out the case for Rutschman, who’s played in just 79 games after the Orioles delayed the debut of the former No. 1 overall prospect. But he’s made an impact in a hurry.
Despite playing the fewest games of anyone ranked in the top five, Rutschman leads all AL rookies in fWAR (3.6) and would rank 12th among all AL hitters had he played enough games. That’s largely due to his otherworldly defense behind the plate – his Fangraphs defensive rating (8.1) ranks 16th in the AL despite playing fewer games than 12 of the 15 players ahead of him.
He’s no slouch at the plate, either. Rutschman leads all AL rookies in OPS (.805) and ranks second in OBP (.363) thanks to a tremendous walk rate (13.7%) that also leads the field. Much of that production has come since the All-Star break: he ranks third in fWAR (2.2) and eighth in OPS (.912) among all qualified AL batters in that stretch, not just rookies. Not bad for a late call-up.
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Who will win AL Rookie of the Year?
At this point, you still have to give the nod to Rodriguez, who has more volumetric production at the plate in a race that rewards home runs and splashy plays. But Rutschman is still priced within striking distance for a reason, as he’s been arguably the better player this year even in a more limited sample.
If you had to bet one, the value is on the O’s catcher, who has spurred one of the best stories in baseball as Baltimore tries to chase down Seattle for the final wild-card spot. Ultimately, whichever team proves fruitful in its long-awaited playoff quest could be the tipping point in this race, unless they both sneak into the field. At that point, it’s a case of volume vs. efficiency – and at this price, it’s worth betting on the latter.
AL Rookie of the Year pick
Adley Rutschman +400