All Michael Busch needed was an opportunity. The 26-year-old had done everything he could in the minors to earn a full-time role with the Los Angeles Dodgers, only for it to never materialize. He was then traded to the Chicago Cubs, where he's flourishing in the early days of 2024.
Busch has soared up the MLB odds board following a hot run at the plate, challenging Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio, among others.
On the AL side, another Baltimore Orioles hitter has taken over as the current favorite. Let's break down the AL and NL Rookie of the Year races.
Odds to win AL Rookie of the Year
| Player |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
 Evan Carter |
+300 | +300 | +350 |
 Colton Cowser |
+300 | +275 | +300 |
| Wyatt Langford |
+430 | +450 | +350 |
| Jackson Holliday |
+550 | +550 | +600 |
 Ceddanne Rafaela |
+1,700 | +1,600 | +2,800 |
 Colt Keith |
+2,200 | +2,200 | +2,500 |
 Junior Caminero |
+2,500 | +2,500 | +2,200 |
| Parker Meadows |
+3,100 | +3,500 | +2,500 |
 Austin Wells |
+4,600 | +5,000 | +3,000 |
 Nolan Schanuel |
+5,000 | +4,000 | +3,500 |
| Curtis Mead |
+5,000 | +5,000 | +6,000 |
 Ricky Tiedemann |
+5,000 | +5,000 | +4,000 |
 Brayan Rocchio |
+5,000 | +5,000 | +5,500 |
| Justin Foscue |
+5,000 | +5,000 | +20,000 |
| Kyle Manzardo |
+6,000 | +6,000 | +5,000 |
| Heston Kjerstad |
+6,000 | +6,000 | +3,500 |
| Coby Mayo |
+6,000 | +6,000 | +4,000 |
| Jack Leiter |
+6,000 | +8,000 | +4,000 |
Odds as of 4-18-2024.
AL Rookie of the Year odds analysis
4/18/2024: With all the hubbub surrounding Jackson Holliday's promotion to the Baltimore Orioles roster, it was perhaps easy to lose sight of another player blossoming into his own. Colton Cowser has been Baltimore's best offensive player, full stop. This is impressive considering Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Cedric Mullins, and Ryan Mountcastle have all been very productive. Cowser wasn't even an everyday player to open the season but forced the Orioles' hands, and it's paid off. He's batting .400/.429/.800 with four homers and three stolen bases in 49 plate appearances. A 30.6% strikeout rate and .519 BABIP could sound the alarm bells, but if he can maintain a level of productivity without too big a slump, he'll be in this race all year.
The Orioles would benefit, too, since he made the Opening Day roster and they would get an extra draft pick in 2026 if he wins the award. He was still available at +2,000 when we last updated. That number is long gone with +300 the best we're seeing.
Previous AL Rookie of the Year odds analysis
4/10/2024: It's Jackson Holliday season and the odds already reflect his imminent arrival to the Baltimore Orioles roster. He was trading between +400 and +500 after our last update and those numbers have tightened to +350 or shorter, depending on the book. Opening the season in Triple-A wasn't entirely surprising since the prevailing wisdom is he'd slot in as Baltimore's second baseman (which he is while batting ninth in his debut). Since he's primarily played shortstop, playing in the minors to get reps at a new position made sense. But here we are, 10 games into the Orioles' season, and Holliday is coming to the majors. If he wins Rookie of the Year, Baltimore won't get a bonus draft pick, either, as that is awarded to the team if the ROY winner started the season in the bigs (like with Gunnar Henderson and Julio Rodriguez). But since neither Wyatt Langford nor Evan Carter — the Texas Rangers pair deemed his top competition before Opening Day — have exploded on the scene, Holliday doesn't have much ground to make up. And if he hits as he did at Triple-A, where he slashed .333/.482/.595 with two home runs, nine RBI, and 18 runs scored in just 10 games, then he will run away with the hardware. The best time to pounce on Holliday was last week. With those lines gone, however, +350 could easily be the best number you'll see on him going forward.
4/4/2024: Had Wyatt Langford or Evan Carter or any of the rookies who broke camp on a major-league roster truly jumped out of the gates with eye-popping numbers and results, it would have put those high-profile names who started in the minors in a bit of a hole. However, no one has done this. So, when the likes of Jackson Holliday, Kyle Manzardo, and Junior Caminero get the call, they could all be in fine positions to make some noise in the Rookie of the Year odds. However, Holliday's odds haven't lengthened all that much despite him opening the season in Triple-A. This is likely a byproduct of no one gaining much separation combined with the fact that he's slashing .400/.448/.800 with two home runs, eight RBI, and 12 runs scored through 29 plate appearances in five games. If he keeps this up, the Baltimore Orioles will have little choice but to promote him.
3/27/2024: The Baltimore Orioles announced that Jackson Holliday wouldn't make the team's Opening Day roster while the Texas Rangers have committed to Wyatt Langford breaking camp. Langford, who is carrying astronomical amounts of hype after being drafted out of Florida just last summer, is now drawing the shortest odds to win AL Rookie of the Year across the board. Holliday could still compete, but he doesn't have a timetable for his eventual debut. It should happen this summer, but will it happen in May or June? Or later? Colton Cowser, on the other hand, did make the Orioles and should feature as an everyday player unless his bat doesn't play. He scuffled during his first taste of big-league action last summer, but that has happened to the best of them. Remember, Mike Trout's first cup of major-league coffee didn't predict a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer. Ceddanne Rafaela will also break camp with the Boston Red Sox. He's a power-speed combo who can play in the infield and outfield, so his versatility should keep him afloat unless his bat completely disappears. The Red Sox also aren't expected to contend, so he could have a longer leash to figure things out in the face of early struggles.
3/19/2024: The trio atop the AL Rookie of the Year board hasn't changed much, except for Texas Rangers outfield prospect Wyatt Langford continuing to narrow the gap with his hot spring. Perhaps the biggest surprise news, which should have ripple effects in these odds sooner than later, is that the Cleveland Guardians will not open the season with Kyle Manzardo entrenched at first base. Manzardo was re-assigned to minor-league camp after slashing .381/.458/.476 in 29 plate appearances. He could still factor into this race, but the Guardians aren't rushing him.
3/5/2024: The top of the odds board hasn't changed in terms of order, but Texas Rangers outfield prospect Wyatt Langford has seen his odds shorten in recent days. At the end of February, the Florida Gators product was trading between +550 and +700. Now, he's as short as +450 with the longest odds being +600. Spring training numbers don't always translate to regular-season success, but Langford was hitting .353/.450/.882 with three home runs and seven RBI through his first 20 plate appearances. If this means he opens the year at the MLB level, it might not be long before he's the overall favorite.
2/29/2024: Books appear torn on whether to favor Texas Rangers outfielder Evan Carter or Baltimore Orioles infielder Jackson Holliday. The biggest difference between the two is that Carter has MLB experience already and is a lock to open the season in the majors. Holliday could easily break camp, and he's said that's his goal, but the consensus top prospect in baseball could also find himself at Triple-A to open the season. While he finished last season at that level, he only amassed 91 plate appearances at Triple-A before the offseason.
2/14/2024: Pitchers and catchers are trickling into spring training, and very little has changed on the odds board for Rookie of the Year. As training camp ramps up and spring games are played, we may get a better sense of who will break camp with his team and who will be relegated to Triple-A to open the season. This is significant because both winners in 2023 started the season in the majors and there is an incentive for teams to have their best rookie at the MLB level for the duration as they will receive a bonus draft pick if the ROY winner spent the entire year on the big-league roster.
2/6/2024: The first update setting us up for the 2024 season provided a more in-depth rundown of expectations. This time around, I'm isolating a couple of gaps in the odds. New York Yankees outfield prospect Everson Pereira is listed at a whopping +20,000 at FanDuel to win AL ROY compared to no longer than +5,000 elsewhere. It's probably stranger that his odds are as short as they are at the other books, considering the Yankees added both Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo this offseason, but he could be the first man up if there's an injury since Jasson Dominguez is still recovering from Tommy John surgery. Toronto Blue Jays lefty Ricky Tiedemann and Minnesota Twins infielder Brooks Lee are both +7,500 at FanDuel, which is considerably longer than at other books. Like Pereira, neither is expected to break camp (things can change) but there could be paths to playing time. The Twins just traded Jorge Polanco and could be a Carlos Correa injury away from needing reinforcements.
1/16/2024: The first thing worth noting — and it applies to both leagues — is teams are given at least some incentive to open the season with their best young players on the MLB roster. If the eventual Rookie of the Year winner was on the Opening Day roster and stayed there throughout the season, his team would receive an extra selection in the following year's draft. Since this provision was put into place before the 2022 season, three of the four winners have played on Opening Day (Julio Rodriguez, Corbin Carroll, and Gunnar Henderson). By this logic, Texas Rangers outfielder Evan Carter makes a certain amount of sense to be drawing the shortest odds, though that is only the case at FanDuel. Carter debuted in 2023, was a breakout star in the postseason, and should be a lock to open the season on the big-league roster. His power-speed combo makes him a major threat on offense and defense and while his strikeout rate spiked in the majors, he didn't go down on strikes too often in the minors.His eventual teammate Wyatt Langford is actually a year older and was taken fourth overall in last summer's draft. His bat is MLB-ready and he could easily make the team out of Spring Training. Jackson Holliday tore through the minors in 2023, going from Single-A to Triple-A by season's end. The son of former big-league slugger Matt, the 20-year-old doesn't need much more seasoning and with the Baltimore Orioles looking to make further headway into their competition window, adding him to the young core sooner than later makes sense. The Orioles have never fielded back-to-back ROY winners, but that would be the case if Holliday — or Colton Cowser or Heston Kjerstad or Coby Mayo — pulls it off.
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Odds to win NL Rookie of the Year
| Player |  |
|
 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Yoshinobu Yamamoto |
+250 | +340 | +325 | +300 |
 Jackson Chourio |
+425 | +650 | +550 | +380 |
 Michael Busch |
+650 | +500 | +450 | +500 |
| Shota Imanaga |
+750 | +700 | +700 | +650 |
 Jackson Merrill |
+800 | +550 | +650 | +550 |
 Jared Jones |
+1,100 | +700 | +700 | +800 |
 Jung Hoo Lee |
+1,800 | +1,300 | +1,100 | +1,200 |
| Paul Skenes |
+2,000 | +2,300 | +2,500 | +2,200 |
| Gavin Stone |
+2,000 | +5,000 | OTB | +4,500 |
| Tyler Black |
+3,000 | +11,000 | +10,000 | +4,500 |
| Ben Brown |
+3,000 | OTB | OTB | +9,000 |
 Masyn Winn |
+3,000 | +5,000 | +5,000 | +4,000 |
| Kyle Harrison |
+3,000 | +5,000 | +5,000 | +2,500 |
 James Wood |
+3,000 | +2,300 | +2,500 | +2,000 |
| Victor Scott II |
+3,000 | +6,000 | +6,000 | OTB |
| Andy Pages |
+4,000 | OTB | OTB | +2,500 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong |
+4,000 | +11,000 | +10,000 | +6,000 |
 Max Meyer |
+4,000 | +3,200 | +2,000 | +4,000 |
| Graham Pauley |
+4,000 | +11,000 | +10,000 | OTB |
| Yuki Matsui |
+4,000 | +15,000 | +15,000 | +6,000 |
| Dylan Crews |
+4,000 | +11,000 | +10,000 | +4,500 |
Odds as of 4-18-2024.
NL Rookie of the Year odds analysis
4/10/2024: Like with Cowser in the AL, we've seen a surge in the NL from an unexpected name. Chicago Cubs first baseman Michael Busch has torched opposing pitchers in recent weeks, including a run where he hit a home run in five straight games, bumping his odds to +650 at longest. He was still available at +2,500 at our last update. Also like Cowser, his strikeout rate is a little worrisome at 27.1%, but his power stroke is in line with everything he did throughout his minor-league career. Last year at Triple-A, he slashed .323/.431/.618 with 27 home runs in 98 games. The Dodgers, who traded him to the Cubs this offseason, never seemed to have enough room for him. So, Los Angeles' loss is Chicago's gain.
One of the more curious moves of the year came when the Miami Marlins optioned right-hander Max Meyer to Triple-A. The Marlins have been upfront about limiting Meyer's innings as he's coming off Tommy John, but he's been the club's best pitcher out of the gate. And if he were to win the award somehow now, they wouldn't get a bonus draft pick because he'd have to have spent the entire season on the MLB roster. As it stands, don't bet on him at his current odds because books have not adjusted nearly enough to take that risk.
Previous NL Rookie of the Year odds analysis
4/10/2024: Nothing much has changed on the NL side of the odds board. No one seems to be on the verge of being called up. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jackson Chourio, Jared Jones, Shota Imanaga, and Jackson Merrill keep chugging along. Paul Skenes could debut soon or he might not pitch for the Pittsburgh Pirates until June or July. So, I want to point out a curiosity. Washington Nationals outfield prospect James Wood is trading as short as +1,800 despite not having anything close to resembling an ETA. He performed really well in spring training, but the Nats have no reason to promote him as they're not competitive and he does have some work to do — notably, cutting down on his swing-and-miss. He could very well be a perennial All-Star later in his career, but the 21-year-old might not play in the majors in 2024 or be a September call-up. He wouldn't be in the running for the award in either scenario. Whereas FanDuel has adjusted to the similar question facing Wood's teammate, Dylan Crews, by listing him at +11,000, his odds are still significantly shorter. Obviously, Washington could surprise everyone and call him up if he keeps hitting like he is — .360/.500/.560 in 32 plate appearances at triple-A with a 15.6% K rate — but the Orioles are in win-now mode, exacerbating the need to call Holliday up. The Nationals are either finishing last in the NL East or ahead of only the Miami Marlins. The more likely scenario is Wood and Crews open 2025 on the big-league roster, giving the club two shots at the award and the bonus pick.
4/4/2024: In contrast to the Junior Circuit, the National League has had its fair share of big performances from first-year players already. Shota Imanaga didn't allow a hit until the sixth inning of his first start for the Chicago Cubs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto bounced back after his rough outing in Seoul to stymie the Cardinals over five shutout innings. Jared Jones struck out 10 in his first big-league start. Jackson Merrill has been an effective everyday player for the San Diego Padres despite being just 20 years old. But MLB's youngest active player, Jackson Chourio — the first player born in 2004 to reach the majors — has put his stamp on the field most impressively. Imanaga and Yamamoto have years of pro experience, this is Chourio's first crack at it. He's 7-for-20 (.350) through five games with a home run, double, and stolen base. The Milwaukee Brewers have a cornerstone outfielder in their midst and maybe a bonus draft pick if he wins NL ROY.
3/25/2024: Paul Skenes won't open the season with the Pittsburgh Pirates, but another top pitching prospect will. Right-hander Jared Jones secured a spot in Pittsburgh's rotation after dazzling in spring training, and he's still available as long as +8,000 at BetMGM, though that line will not last. As expected, Jackson Chourio and Jackson Merrill have seen their odds shorten after their spots on their respective teams' Opening Day rosters were secured. The same will likely happen with Jones, though not at the same rate as the Jacksons before actual games are played.
3/19/2024: The biggest preseason news among NL rookies is that Jackson Chourio and Jackson Merrill will make the Opening Day rosters of the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres, respectively. It seemed possible that this was Chourio's destiny after signing his massive contract, but the club was noncommital until only recently. Merrill is a bigger surprise, given that he's only 20 years old and will be the team's starting center fielder after almost exclusively playing shortstop throughout his minor-league career. Chourio was already near the top of the board, but this only solidified his presence. Merrill, who has just 46 games at Double-A under his belt, shot way up as soon as the news of his promotion became public. On the opposite end, the Pittsburgh Pirates officially announced that right-hander Paul Skenes would open the year in the minors despite making everyone look foolish with his arsenal of pitches. Likewise, the Arizona Diamondbacks are sending Jordan Lawlar to Triple-A and the Chicago Cubs have elected to let Pete Crow-Armstrong get a little extra minor-league seasoning. The biggest faller since our last update is Cincinnati Reds infielder Noelvi Marte, who was suspended for half the season — plus playoffs — after testing positive for an anabolic steroid.
3/5/2024: The Washington Nationals are a team to watch. There is a chance that they choose to break camp with both Dylan Crews and James Wood on the roster, which would make them an infinitely more fun team to watch while also boosting those players' specific chances at winning ROY if Yoshinobu Yamamoto can't follow through. Wood, who was one of the pieces to come over from the Juan Soto trade in 2022, is tearing the cover off the ball this spring. Through eight games, Wood is 8-for-16 with three home runs and six walks. Like with Langford, this won't necessarily translate to the regular season right away, but he's giving the Nationals something to consider before Opening Day.
<2/29/2024: The NL landscape is different in that a pair of overseas veterans are pegged as the favorites to win the NL Rookie of the Year.
<Los Angeles Dodgers
< right-hander
<Yoshinobu Yamamoto
< — who is among the favorites in the
<Cy Young odds
< — played seven years in Japan before inking a deal in Hollywood while
<San Francisco Giants
< outfielder
<Jung Hoo Lee
< played seven seasons in South Korea. Whether or not you agree with MLB's stance on their rookie eligibility, they will both have guaranteed leg up by breaking camp with their respective clubs while the likes of Jackson Chourio and Paul Skenes may open the year in the minors
<
2/14/2024:
<Like with the AL odds, very little has changed here — though Paul Skenes' odds at Caesars have gone back to +1,500 after going as far as +3,000 in early February. However, while Corbin Burnes getting traded was the talk of the town, the Milwaukee Brewers' return could easily figure into this race. Left-hander DL Hall will almost certainly open the season in Milwaukee's rotation and has long been touted as a potential big-time starter with his command getting in the way so far. Coming to the Brewers alongside Hall, shortstop Joey Ortiz should open the season as an everyday player. And while he's largely been viewed as a glove-first infielder, he makes a ton of contact and could have sneaky power. He's currently trading at +10,000 at Caesars.
<
2/6/2024:
<Not much has changed in the NL side, except Pittsburgh Pirates pitching prospect Paul Skenes going from +700 at Caesars to +3,000 since last month, likely reflecting the club's plan to slow play his debut.
<
1/16/2024:
<The NL is a bit of a different story with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jung Hoo Lee, and Shota Imanaga all among the shortest odds. While this will be their first season in MLB, each has established himself overseas. Yamamoto pitched for seven dominant seasons for the Orix Buffaloes in Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball. Imanaga is five years older and has pitched for the Yokohama Bay Stars since 2016. Meanwhile, Lee has been a fixture in Korea since his age-18 season in 2017. So, based on experience alone, maybe these players have an inside track. But that same argument could have been made in favor of Kodai Senga and Masataka Yoshida last season or Seiya Suzuki in 2022. Cincinnati Reds infielder Noelvi Marte debuted late in 2023, hitting .316 with three home runs and six stolen bases in 35 games. While the Reds have a glut of young talent, Marte might be too good to be blocked — with trade rumors swirling around former ROY winner Jonathan India, Marte's spot appears secure. Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio is an interesting case. He just signed an eight-year, $82-million contract — largest guaranteed deal for a prospect who hasn't played a game in the majors — but the club said he won't break camp. Maybe they change their tune, but he might be behind the 8-ball if that forecast holds true
<.
Covers MLB betting tools
Past Rookie of the Year winners
Previous AL RoY winners
Although all players have an equal chance of winning the AL Rookie of the Year Award, the honor has been claimed disproportionately by outfielders since its inception in 1949. Outfielders have 24 victories compared to 17 for pitchers and 17 for shortstops. Catchers are bringing up the rear with just two ROY victories over the past 72 years.
| Year | Player |
|---|---|
| 2023 | Gunnar Henderson (3B/SS) |
| 2022 |  Julio Rodriguez (OF) |
| 2021 |  Randy Arozarena (OF) |
| 2020 | Kyle Lewis (OF) |
| 2019 |  Yordan Alvarez (OF) |
| 2018 |  Shohei Ohtani (P/OF) |
| 2017 |  Aaron Judge (OF) |
| 2016 |  Michael Fulmer (SP) |
| 2015 | Carlos Correa (SS) |
| 2014 |  Jose Abreau (1B) |
| 2013 | Wil Myers (OF) |
Popular MLB futures markets
Previous NL RoY winners
No franchise has won more Rookie of the Year awards than the Dodgers. "The Blue Crew" have claimed 18 RoY trophies dating back to the club's early days in Brooklyn.
However, unlike the AL — where the West has been the recent home of the top rookies — the NL East has housed five of the last 11 RoYs, with a mix of outfielders, infielders, starting pitchers, and even a reliever.
| Year | Player (Team) |
|---|---|
| 2023 |  Corbin Carroll (OF) |
| 2022 |  Michael Harris (OF) |
| 2021 |  Jonathan India (2B) |
| 2020 |  Devin Williams (RP) |
| 2019 |  Pete Alonso (1B) |
| 2018 | Ronald Acuna Jr. (OF) |
| 2017 |  Cody Bellinger (1B/OF) |
| 2016 | Cory Seager (SS) |
| 2015 |  Kris Bryant (3B) |
| 2014 | Jacob deGrom (SP) |
| 2013 |  Jose Fernandez (SP) |
MLB RoY odds explained
Most sportsbooks will display odds in the American format as listed above. When Julio Rodriguez all but claimed the AL Rookie of the Year in 2022, his odds had a minus (-) sign ahead of the number down the stretch.
- Julio Rodriguez -4,000
That means that a bettor in September had to wager $4,000 to win $100 by betting on J-Rod to win AL RoY. Before the season starts, almost every player will have a plus (+) sign ahead of their odds.
- Corbin Carroll +380
That means a bettor would profit $380 for a $100 wager on Carroll before the season started if he's ultimately successful (which he was!).
If American odds aren't your thing, simply use a tool like our odds converter to switch the odds to decimal or fractional format. Most online sportsbooks also give you the option to change the odds format that you see.
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MLB Rookie of the Year Awards FAQ
Baltimore Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser - not Jackson Holliday - has taken over has the betting favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year at most books. Texas Rangers outfielder Evan Carter is still even with him at DraftKings, though.
Los Angeles Dodgers SP Yoshinobu Yamamoto is drawing the shortest odds on the Senior Circuit.
Baltimore 3B/SS Gunnar Henderson and Arizona OF Corbin Carroll won their respective Rookie of the Year awards and were voted on unanimously.
MLB rules state a player is considered a rookie unless he has 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 total days on an active MLB roster prior to September 1.
