2022 MLB Rookie of the Year odds update: Julio Rodriguez running away in the AL, Oneil Cruz the favorite in the NL

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The MLB calendar turns to an action-packed July where the stars of today’s game will meet in Los Angeles on July 19 for the mid-summer classic. While it’s unlikely any rookies get the invite to this year’s All-Star Game, the class of 2022 has a bright future, which is reflected in the AL and NL Rookie of the Year odds.

Since our last Rookie of the Year odds update, Mariners OF Julio Rodriguez (-225) has now dipped to over a two-dollar favorite in the AL, while the Pirates recently recalled shortstop, Oneil Cruz (+375), sits atop the NL odds board.

Below, we’ll break down the top contenders and some of our favorite sleepers to win the awards.

2022 NL Rookie of the Year Favorite

All odds courtesy of Vegas Insider

Oneil Cruz, SS, Pirates +375 (implied probability 21.05 percent)

It’s pretty wild to see Cruz pegged as the odds-on favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year considering the 23-year-old shortstop has logged just 54 at-bats this season. Cruz hasn’t done anything special, posting a below-average OPS+ (85) while batting slightly above the Mendoza line (.204). Somehow, he’s tied with Braves outfielder Michael Harris Jr. with the lowest odds as of July 5.

It has to be more of a projection with Cruz’s odds, as there’s no way to justify that his current production warrants him to be the betting favorite. Cruz could very well end the season with 15-plus home runs and an above-average OPS+, but he still has a long way to go. Sure, he might have potentially led all rookies in home runs and RBIs had he been on Pittsburgh’s big-league roster since opening day, but none of that gets factored into the voting process.

Padres starter MacKenzie Gore was the odds-on favorite for a good chunk of the season but currently sits with the fourth-lowest odds at +600. Gore’s command and strikeout prowess is trending in the wrong direction, but he’s still very much capable of re-emerging as the betting favorite this season.

Cruz undoubtedly passes the eye test, but he still needs to have a monster second half to be taken seriously as the man to beat. I’d refrain from getting involved with Cruz and wait for a larger sample size of data to be had before laying action down on the flashy middle infielder.

2022 AL Rookie of the Year Favorite

Julio Rodriguez, CF, Mariners -225 (implied probability 69.23 percent)

Rodriguez is putting forth a Rookie of the Year-caliber campaign and figures to continue to move down as a bigger betting favorite. He’s coming off an uber-productive week, slashing .346/.379/.962, hitting four long balls, and driving in eight runs. More important, he’s keeping Seattle afloat in the AL wild card race, as the Mariners enter Tuesday winners in six of their past seven contests.

As I said in our last Rookie of the Year odds update, “the AL race isn’t nearly as tight as the NL, and it actually may be worthwhile to lay the juice on J-Rod to win AL Rookie of the Year honors. There’s a good chance his odds continue to increase with his steady play, as it might only be a matter of time until he hits the -200 mark.”

J-Rod’s moved from a -120 favorite to a -225 favorite since that update, and even with J-Rod’s implied probability approaching 70 percent, it might still be worthwhile to lay the juice to back the star centerfielder to win the AL Rookie of the Year.

2022 NL Rookie of the Year Sleepers

Nolan Gorman, 2B, Cardinals +1000 (implied probability 7.14 percent)

Gorman has a legit shot to win the NL Rookie of the Year. Unlike Cruz, Gorman’s actually produced in the majors over a large sample size. Gorman enters July 5 with a 1.0 bWAR and 123 OPS+ while hitting seven home runs with 32 RBIs.

Gorman’s a consistent top-of-the-order bat for a St. Louis bunch looking for its fourth straight playoff appearance. Gorman’s struggled over the past week, slashing just .182/.308/.364, but that’s the nature of baseball. Given Gorman’s smooth, compact swing, he’s likely to bounce back and put forth a more productive month of July.

Take a shot on Gorman to continue his production and vault up the NL Rookie of the Year odds board.

More NL sleepers to consider: Christopher Morel, UTL, Cubs (+1400); Juan Yepez, OF/1B; Cardinals (+1500); Seiya Suzuki, RF, Cubs (+2000)

2022 AL Rookie of the Year Sleepers

Joe Ryan, SP, Twins +3000 (implied probability 3.23 percent)

While things are trending toward Rodriguez winning the award, Ryan is an interesting sleeper.

Ryan (6-3, 3.00 ERA, 123 ERA+) is an above-average starter on a playoff-caliber Twins team. He put forth one of the best outings of his career in his last start against the Orioles on July 1, giving the Twins seven full innings of work while allowing just one run on two hits with a dominant 7:1 K-to-BB rate. Ryan’s capable of putting together a consistent second half that could lead him to have the second-lowest odds to win AL Rookie of the Year behind Rodriguez.

At the end of the day, it’s all about winning bets. Despite Ryan’s odds presenting some “value,” there’s little to no value in having tickets that you rip up and toss in the trash. His odds might decrease a bit, but he’s still on the outside looking in to really be considered a legit contender.

More AL sleepers to consider: Adley Rutschman, C, Orioles (+1800); Shane Baz, SP, Rays (+5000); George Kirby, SP, Mariners (+6600)

2022 NL Rookie of the Year odds: Top 10

Player Team Odds
Oneil Cruz Pirates +375
Michael Harris Braves +375
Spencer Strider Braves +450
MacKenzie Gore Padres +600
Nolan Gorman Cardinals +1000
Brendan Donovan Cardinals +1100
Christopher Morel Cubs +1400
Juan Yepez Cardinals +1500
Seiya Suzuki Cubs +2000
Jack Suwinski Pirates +2000

2022 AL Rookie of the Year odds: Top 10

Player Team Odds
Julio Rodriguez Mariners -225
Jeremy Pena Astros +600
Bobby Witt Jr. Royals +600
Adley Rutschman Orioles +1800
Joe Ryan Twins +3000
Riley Greene Tigers +3500
Spencer Torkelson Tigers +4000
Vinnie Pasquantino Royals +5000
MJ Melendez Royals +5000
Jake Burger White Sox +5000
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Nick Musial is a Content Producer at The Sporting News