Savor the rest of the sweltering summer because this winter in Texas is going to be “colder than normal,” according to Farmers’ Almanac.
The Almanac, which has been predicting the weather outlook for farmers and gardeners for over 200 years, says to expect a “chilly” winter with “normal precipitation.” Cold temperatures are expected to arrive in the South in mid-to-late November, mid-to-late December, and early and late January.
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The Farmers' Almanac previously predicted Texas’ deadly winter storm in 2021, in which heavy snowfall, ice storms and bitter temperatures put an enormous strain on the state’s power grid, leaving millions without electricity. Over 200 people died.
For this year, North Texas could see the most potential for snow and ice storms throughout the season. The Almanac says that heavy snowfall is expected to reach North Texas by the first week of January, followed by “significant snows” from North and Central Texas by the second week.
While this winter “will be filled with plenty of shaking, shivering and shoveling,” most of the cold weather is expected to “rattle warm weather seekers in the Southeast and South Central states, but the real shivers might send people in the Great Lakes area, Northeast, and North Central regions hibernating.”
Since 1818, the Farmers’ Almanac has offered long-range weather predictions using a system that has been “altered slightly and turned into a formula that is both mathematical and astronomical,” according to its website.
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Only a weather prognosticator who goes by the pseudonym Caleb Weatherbee knows the exact formula.
While the Almanac boasts that their extended forecasts “fare well,” research paints a far different picture.
John Walsh, a professor emeritus in the Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Illinois, conducted a study testing the accuracy of the Almanac’s monthly temperature and precipitation forecasts by comparing them to the actual weather data over a five-year period.
The results of Walsh’s study found that 51.9 percent of the monthly precipitation forecasts and 50.7 percent of the monthly temperature forecasts were accurate.
And before Texans start booking resort days in Cancun, the National Weather Service and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center have yet to release their winter forecast predictions.
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“It’s so early,” Andrew Quigley, a meteorologist with the NWS in Austin/San Antonio. “In terms of, in your words, hard predictions, we’re just too far out at this point to really be able to give you any sort of meaningful insight.”
The first official winter forecast from the Climate Prediction Center, which cover November, December and January, is scheduled to be released in October. Quigley said climate conditions from the weather pattern La Niña are expected to continue through the first half of fall. These conditions tend to favor warmer temperatures and drier weather. Predictions so far indicate that La Niña may continue through the winter.
Last winter, which the Farmers’ Almanac predicted to be similar to 2021, saw average or above average temperatures.
Texas’ historic winter weather in February 2021, which dumped as much as 6.5 inches of snow in some parts of San Antonio over the course of a week, happened under La Niña conditions, as did last year’s winter.
“Some of the events we saw specifically in February of 2021 were very rare,” Quigley said. “It was what some meteorologists would consider to be a once in a career type winter event for South Central Texas.”
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