AccuWeather's 2022 Summer Forecast Sees Less Dramatic Heat In WA

SEATTLE — While summer is still more than a month out, and it has yet to feel much like spring around Western Washington, it's never too early to think about the warmer months ahead, and seasonal predictions continue to roll in.

The latest, courtesy of AccuWeather, is a little rosier than others, seeing less dramatic temperatures for Puget Sound, especially early on in the season, and a far cry from the deadly and record-breaking run of punishing heat that descended on the region in June 2021.

"Last June featured all-time record heat across the Pacific Northwest and into Canada, melting away long-standing temperature records in dozens of cities," AccuWeather said. "This June will almost be the exact opposite with temperatures more typical of early summer and even some brief shots of rain and high elevation snow. Temperatures throughout the month as a whole are predicted to be 6 to 8 degrees Fahrenheit lower when compared to last June from Seattle down to the south and east through Salt Lake City."

Still, AccuWeather expects temperatures will run above normal for much of the United States between June and August, intensifying wildfire risks and drought concerns. The latest long-range outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center favor high heat in nearly every state over the same time period, with the Pacific Northwest and several other states running drier than normal.

Related: Another Hot Summer Ahead For Washington: Farmers' Almanac

Though the season for trips to the beach, vacations and other outdoor fun doesn’t officially begin until the summer solstice on June 21, meteorological summer starts June 1. Summer-like temperatures have already arrived in Southern California, while people in the northern Plains are still shivering under persistent blasts of arctic air and blizzard conditions, AccuWeather said.

All that will be a distant memory soon, according to AccuWeather senior meteorologist Paul Pastelok. Whether you live in a specific area or are planning a vacation, here’s what you need to know about summer 2022:

Rain, Tornadoes, Derechos

People living in the Northeast and Midwest can expect a wet spring to continue into summer. That could disrupt some summer activities. But look at it this way: You won’t have to water the lawn as much, Pastelok said. On the other hand, “you’re going to have to probably cut the lawn often,” and finding a window to do that may be difficult.

More moisture could mean more-severe storms, including damaging tornadoes, in the Northeast through midsummer and in the Midwest in June and July.

• Related: Active 2022 Tornado Season Expected

Meteorologists are concerned about some weather pattern similarities to 2012, a summer that produced a derecho that ripped across the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic. A derecho is essentially an inland hurricane with destructive winds at least 58 mph that spans at least 240 miles.

This year, the areas at the highest risk of a derecho are the Midwest, Ohio Valley and parts of the mid-Atlantic.

‘Not A Great Beach Summer’

People planning vacations to the Southeast and Atlantic coast should not bank on a beach day every day. “You're still going to get a hot day here and there, and I do think it's going to be a decent but not a great beach summer," Pastelok said.

Also, an early tropical storm system could create problems in the central Gulf Coast, including most of Florida and the Outer Banks of North Carolina, the forecast says. The hurricane season is expected to ramp up in late summer and early fall.

Drought Relief?

Drought conditions are persistent from Texas to Montana, with most of the High Plains experiencing severe to extreme drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

That’s expected to change, but not for the better.

"The High Plains is going to end up being drier and drier and drier as we go into the first part of the summer season," Pastelok said. "So, I don't see any relief coming that way from any big [thunderstorm] complexes developing.”

He said some temporary drought relief is expected from “a pretty decent annual monsoon season” over the Rocky Mountains and Four Corners areas of southwest Colorado, southeast Utah, northeast Arizona and northwest New Mexico.

That could disrupt outdoor plans across the interior West, including trips to visit landmarks such as the Grand Canyon in Arizona, Zion and Arches national parks in Utah, and the Rocky Mountains in Colorado.

And with the monsoon season comes increased risk for lightning strikes, which could ignite fires, and a risk of mudslides. “So it's not all good news, but it is good news as far as water goes," Pastelok said.

The fire season has already started in the Four Corners area.

Another Active Fire Season

Temperatures will be 6 and 8 degrees cooler than those experienced last year from Seattle to Salt Lake City in early summer, but the cool and periodically rainy season won’t last long, AccuWeather writes. Along with the rest of the West Coast, the Pacific Northwest will see warm, dry conditions by midsummer, according to AccuWeather.

Although the monsoon season will bring some temporary relief, drought conditions in the interior Southwest will continue to deplete reservoirs and could lead to water restrictions and hydroelectric power disruptions.

Because of the drought, the Southern California wildfire season could pick up in June and become more widespread in the western U.S. through July and August.