What’s in the Farmers’ Almanac forecast for this winter?

Flannel, hot chocolate and snowshoes are in the winter forecast from the Farmers’ Almanac, which is predicting a shivery 2022-2023 winter for most of the United States.

The storied old journal’s extended weather forecast predicts “plenty of snow, rain and mush — as well as some record-breaking cold temperatures! We are warning readers to get ready to ‘Shake, shiver and shovel!’”

The News & Observer notes that “after a brutally hot summer, our recent slightly cooler temperatures have some people looking forward to even cooler weather the coming fall and winter seasons will bring.”

For those folks, the almanac’s prediction is good news: Winter’s likely to pop in early and linger, the almanac says, with storms and cold predicted across the continental U.S. in December and lingering all season in the eastern half of the country.

Predictions include big storms in early January in the Rockies and across the Plains, with “heavy snow that may reach as far south as Texas and Oklahoma, followed by a sweep of bitterly cold air.”

Mid-January is likely to bring “heavy rain and snow across the eastern two-thirds of the country,” then the a blast of exceedingly cold arctic air — as low as “40 degrees below zero.”

Not everyone will receive the icy blast, though, according to the prediction. “The Far West and the Pacific Northwest will see about-normal winter precipitation; however, the Southwest will experience less than normal,” it says.

Utah, Nevada, California and Arizona are included in the “mild, drier than normal category,” while Washington, Oregon and Idaho are labeled “brisk, normal precipitation.” Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Louisiana and Arkansas should be “chilly with normal precipitation.” New England’s prediction is “significant shivers: slushy, icy, snowy,” while the Great Lakes area is expected to be “unreasonably cold and snowy,” down to the southern Gulf states, including Florida, Alabama, Mississippi and Georgia, where the forecast is “shivery, wet and slushy.”

That huge swath in the middle of the country? The Farmers’ Almanac predicts a “hibernation zone” that’s “glacial and snow-filled.”

According to its website, the Farmers’ Almanac has been predicting weather since 1818, boasting it offers uniquely long-range predictions, stretching out 16 months, the calculations made two years in advance.

“The editors of the ‘Farmers’ Almanac’ firmly deny using any type of computer satellite tracking equipment, weather lore, or groundhogs. What they will admit to is using a specific and reliable set of rules that were developed back in 1818 by astronomer and mathemetician, David Young, the almanac’s first editor. These rules have been altered slightly and turned into a formula that is both mathematical and astronomical,” it says.

Think sunspots, the moon-influenced tides and other things, it adds — all the tools of a “weather prognosticator” who uses the fake name Caleb Weatherbee.

The Almanac’s been at it longer than the National Weather Service, it adds.

The National Weather Service issues its own three-month “probability forecast” every month.

Good at predicting?

As for how good the predictions are, the almanac staff hedges a little, noting that “many longtime almanac followers maintain that our forecasts are 80% to 85% accurate.” The publication doesn’t actually offer its own quantification of successful prognostication, though it mentions some of its victories.

Among other prediction wins, the Almanac brags that it predicted the Northeast’s February 2022 blizzard, “which isn’t a term we throw around lightly.”

What it called a “Winter of the Great Divide” and the “crazy in-between” came through for 2021-2022, as well, the staff said.

According to one USA Today article, “These big picture weather predictions should be taken with a grain of salt, some weather experts say.”

USA Today separately said the good grade the Almanac awards itself is higher than that given by at least some other weather watchers. “In 2016 and 2017, for example, meteorologist Jan Null conducted an accuracy review of the ‘Old Farmers’ Almanac,’ giving out ‘good,’ ‘bad’ and ‘mixed’ grades to the almanac’s winter forecast based on how the projections compared to the actual weather outcomes in each region in the U.S.,” the article said.

It noted that “just 25% of the 57 regions reviewed got a ‘good’ accuracy rating for precipitation predictions in the 2016 and 2017 editions of the ‘Old Farmers’ Almanac.’ For temperature predictions during that same time span, the almanac earned a ‘good’ accuracy rating on just under 33% of the 52 regions reviewed.”

That may rival some more high-tech predictions. But the Deseret News couldn’t find a more recent assessment of the almanac, either.

The “Old Farmers’ Almanac” was launched in 1792 and the “Farmers’ Almanac” in 1818 — both long, long before satellites started tracking weather.

Last year, the Deseret News asked longtime dairy farmer Ron Gibson, who was president of the Utah Farm Bureau, if he kept a copy of the Farmers’ Almanac on his kitchen counter — a query that elicited a chuckle in response.

“I would consider that stuff about as good as going to the lady who reads your fortune,” he said.