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USA National Forecast

Summer Outlook Update: Hotter Than Average Conditions Most Likely In the Rockies, Plains, Midwest

May 19, 2022

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At a Glance

  • Much of the U.S. is expected to see a hotter than typical summer in 2022.
  • That's particularly the case from the Rockies and Plains into the Midwest.
  • An early monsoon may bring some relief to the Desert Southwest.
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Summer 2022 is expected to be hotter than average across a broad swath of the United States, according to an updated outlook from The Weather Company, an IBM Business, and Atmospheric G2.

An expansive area from the Great Basin and Rockies to the Plains, Midwest and interior Northeast is forecast to see temperatures that are the most above average from June through August. The most persistently hot conditions, relative to average, might set up in parts of the upper Midwest.

Meanwhile, summer heat may be a bit more muted, relative to average, across parts of the Southeast and Gulf Coast.

Keep in mind this outlook is an overall three-month trend. Therefore, we will likely see periods that are hotter or cooler in each respective region of the country when compared to what is shown.

Overall, the setup this summer looks similar to last summer.

Forecasts are trending toward a rare "triple-dip", or third consecutive La Niña this fall and winter.

Five of the past six summers preceding La Niña winters have been hot overall in the U.S., according to Todd Crawford, director of meteorology at Atmospheric G2.

Various extended forecast models are also indicating it will be hotter than usual in the North and below average heat in the South.

There's also an expansive drought from the Plains to the West that may influence summer temperatures. Drier soil heats up faster than moist ground and can boost areas of high pressure aloft often associated with heat waves.

Below is a month-by-month breakdown of the summer forecast.

June

June is expected to be most anomalously hot from the Desert Southwest to the Rockies, Plains and upper Midwest, particularly in areas parched by drought from the Plains westward.

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The north-central U.S. is forecast to see temperatures that are the most above average as we kick off summer in June. Above-average temperatures are also expected to stretch as far east as the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

However, much of the rest of the country from California to central Texas to the Ohio Valley and interior Northeast is expected to be hotter than average in June.

Much of the Southeast and East Coast should see a fairly typical June, temperature wise.

The only part of the Lower 48 that may remain stubbornly cool in June could be Washington state and northwest Oregon, a continuation of what we've seen this spring.

July

The northern Rockies, Northern Plains and upper Midwest are most likely to swelter in a hotter than average July in 2022.

Areas from the central Rockies to Oklahoma to the Great Lakes are also expected to have a hot month.

The Southeast and much of the Gulf Coast may have a somewhat cooler than usual July. With the focus of the heat farther north, this could leave the Southeast in a pattern of humid, but less hot easterly winds.

The best chance of a cooler July, however, may be in the Southwest, where an early start to the wet phase of the monsoon - summer thunderstorm season - is expected, as happened last summer.

August

The core of August's anomalous heat is expected from the Great Lakes to northern New England.

However, a generally hot August is forecast from the Missouri Valley to the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic.

For the same reasoning discussed in the July section above, August heat is expected to be muted, overall, from the Desert Southwest to the Carolinas and Florida.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

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