The 150th Open Championship at St. Andrew’s is a great time to celebrate the game of golf.
That’s what we’re doing this week, after already making our picks to win.
Xander Schauffele now has three wins this season after last week’s Scottish Open victory. What are your expectations for him this week?
Brendan Quinn: Schaueffele is going to take a run at winning his first career major. No reason to believe otherwise. In addition to those recent back-to-back wins, Schauffele’s four previous results were T14 at the U.S. Open, T18 at the Memorial, T13 at the PGA Championship and T5 at the Byron Nelson. Now, obviously, this heater will come to an end at some point, just as recent runs by Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay and Jon Rahm did. However, there’s little reason to foresee Schauffele losing form in the span of a week. The fact that he not only won last week, but won in conditions similar to what he’ll see at St. Andrews, is inspiring. Will he win? There are many variables, but I think he’ll be among the leaders.
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Hugh Kellenberger: It’s been five years since anyone won three starts in a row on the PGA Tour (Dustin Johnson), and that’s for a reason. It’s extraordinarily hard to do so, and the fields week-to-week are so strong that you can play well and it will not be enough. So I’ll play it safe and say that I expect Xander Schauffele to be at St. Andrew’s on the weekend and be lurking, but not in serious contention. I do wonder about a mental drain after having to be “on” and navigating the Scottish Open for 72 holes, and then having to attack all this course presents you with.
Aaron Suttles: Winning a golf tournament is hard. Winning three in a row is damn-near impossible. He’s on a heater, for sure, so I expect he’ll be in good form this week. But I don’t expect him to be in contention Sunday, if for no other reason than the law of averages. As golfers can attest, it’s not easy to keep your form weekly. I don’t expect him to play poorly, but the way the course is rolling out, there should be a lot of guys putting up good scores, meaning more guys to leapfrog to take home his first career major.
Brody Miller: Yes, I know it’s an oversimplification, but Schauffele falls in the category of guys who needed to learn how to win. Now, he seems unlocked. And yes, I get the whole “nobody wins three tournaments in a row” thing, but it’s not like winning recently changes your percentages of winning. It’s just that golf tournaments are low percentage tournaments. I’m confident he goes in, plays really wells and gets a T10 or T5. I don’t know if he wins, but I do think his form continues.
Joe Vardon: When we do these things, Schauffele is usually a sentimental pick for me, because I was fortunate enough to walk with him on his last 18 holes en route to an Olympic gold. His nerves and his putting stroke were tested as he held off Paul Casey, a stunning, rattling charge from Rory Sabbatini, and native son Hideki Matsuyama, the 2021 Masters champ who was playing in front of thousands of his fellow countrymen in Tokyo. That little factoid matters. There were no “fans” allowed at those Olympics, but for events like golf or baseball, in which Japan was competing for gold, thousands of Olympic volunteers were permitted inside. Virtually all were Japanese. And Schauffele showed the intestinal fortitude to hang on and win a prestigious tournament anyway. The thought at the time was winning gold would propel him to break through in a major. This is the last one of the year and, I think, his last chance for anyone to be able to say the Olympic experience did translate into winning a big one. And this just happens to be the one major where he’d have the fewest fans.
Rory fancies his chances going into his second Open Championship at St Andrews 👀#The150thOpen pic.twitter.com/58KHR2oUWq
— The Open (@TheOpen) July 12, 2022
What player in the OWGR top 10 will definitely not win this week?
Quinn: I know he’s the No. 1 player in the world and he’s finished second in two of his last five starts, but I don’t like how Scheffler’s lashing style will potentially translate to the Old Course. He missed the cut at the Renaissance Club last week, failing to break par in both rounds and finishing 5-over. This just doesn’t seem like a good fit for the Masters champion.
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Kellenberger: Cameron Smith has played in four Open Championships and his finishers were, in order, missed the cut, 78th, T20 and T33. Smith is absolutely a better golfer than those results, but in terms of a guy who feels unlikely to suddenly solve this particular major on such a level that he’s holding the Claret Jug on Sunday, he’s my pick.
Suttles: Patrick Cantlay has played in three Open Championships and made the cut twice. His best finish came in 2018 with 12th-place finish. This pick could bite me as he’s played well the last month with four starts and four top-15 finishes, including a fourth-place finish last week at the Scottish Open.
Vardon: Matt Fitzpatrick is not going back to back in majors. It’s a risky pick, given that he finished T-6th at the Scottish, after winning the U.S. Open and finishing T-10 at the RBC. I saw an interview recently in which he said he was still living off the high of winning the American title, and so I just think when it comes down to it, he won’t be quite where he needs to be to pull off a second consecutive major. And by writing this, I think I just guaranteed Fitzy a Claret Jug, didn’t I?
Miller: Victor Hovland is the answer until proven otherwise. He hasn’t made a top-20 in a full field since March. He hasn’t even been top-50 since May, and he missed cuts at the Scottish and the U.S. Open. Hovland appears lost, and I don’t think the Open Championship is where people suddenly find their game. No win for Hovland.
Who will be the highest-finishing LIV Golf player this week?
Quinn: Brooks Koepka is a threat to win every time he tees it up in a major championship. Don’t sleep on him this week. He could win this. Koepka’s most recent results in the Open Championship: T6 last year, T4 in 2019, T39 in 2018, T6 in 2017, (DNP in 2016) and T10 in 2015 at St. Andrews. Of course, this theory also totally goes against Koepka’s recent results. He’s played sparingly this year and missed the cut at Masters, and finished T55 at the PGA and 55th at the U.S. Open.
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Kellenberger: Louis Oosthuizen won at the Old Course in 2010, tied for third last year at Royal St. George’s and has made it a habit to be on the leaderboards on Sunday in recent years. This is not a golf course that can be overpowered, so I’m eliminating Bryson DeChambeau and Koepka. I considered Dustin Johnson, but Oosthuizen’s track record wins out.
Suttles: I’ve been bitten by the tease of Koepka multiple times this year in my local picks contests. The results? Missed cut and a pair of 55th-place finishes. I learned my lesson against picking him in the U.S. Open, but it was a hard-learned lesson. Perhaps I’m stubborn, but for this particular question, I think Brooksy is the guy. I think he’s in a good place. I also think he’s motivated because of all the criticism he’s taken from going to LIV. He’s a guy who says he doesn’t care and that’s his whole personality around the game, but let’s be real. A man can’t hear all that negativity about himself and completely not care. So I can easily see him using that as motivation to play well this week.
Vardon: Paul Casey! Hell yes. Just a solid player throughout his career, finished T-3 at the Players this season, and his best Open finish was at St. Andrews in 2010, when he finished T-3. He missed the U.S. Open with a back injury that has limited him overall — in fact, he has not played in a major this year, so of course, there’s a scenario where he’s either too hurt to get through two rounds or not sharp because of the injury. No one is looking for him to do well, but an Englishman playing on the ol’ Scottish track might be what the LIV needs as a standard-bearer this week.
Miller: Laugh at me as you may, but Sergio Garcia. He’s one of the great Open Championship players of his era — 10 top-10 finishes! — and he’s played well enough in LIV events to not make you think his form is lost. I’m prepared for Garcia to finish somewhere in the top 20.
Will Tiger Woods make the cut?
Quinn: I’d love to present some ruminative theories on Tiger’s course knowledge and his history on links courses, but instead I’ll rely on the kismet entities that comprise this game. The golf gods will not allow for Woods to cross Swilcan Bridge on the wrong side of the cut line on Friday. That simply cannot happen. He will cross the bridge on Sunday, and it will be awesome.
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Kellenberger: Yes. He seems to be in good spirits, and there’s a reason why he’s always played so well here. He’s going to be able to pick his way around this place, making enough birdies and avoiding the blow-up hole that can lead to a missed cut. I don’t expect him to be in contention, truly, but he’ll make the weekend.
Miller: I’m throwing caution to the wind for once. I think he actually competes. No, he won’t win. But I think he enters Saturday a few shots off the lead and has enough big bursts of greatness to hang around all weekend. I thought Southern Hills would be awful for him, which it was, and I think he rediscovers something this week, even if for small moments.
Suttles: Yes. His experience alone makes this a no-brainer for me. The only thing you can’t predict is whether he gets into an awkward lie in the bunker that puts too much stress on his leg that could make it difficult to get around. But his 15th club – that experience and his unmatched mental strength – makes him a safe bet in my mind to play the weekend. I’ve heard the theory put forth that this might be his swan song. For what’s remaining of my youth, I refuse to believe that.
Vardon: As of this writing he’d walked 58 holes since arriving to the Old Course over the weekend. Having watched him limp around Augusta National and Southern Hills, hearing he’s been on his feet so much heading into the Open had me nervous. But now I am wondering if perhaps he’s feeling a little better? My answer is yes, he makes the cut. I’ve lost any real hope that he can contend — there is truly nothing in golf (or sports?) like Tiger in contention at a major — but I wonder when it will be that we all don’t pause for a moment before every tournament in which he’s teeing it up, and allow ourselves to dream of a man in a red shirt and black hat, pumping his fist once more on 18 on a Sunday?
(Top photo of Xander Schauffele: Michael Madrid / USA Today)